Goal planning

Monte Carlo SIP Simulator

Project an SIP across 1,000 simulated paths, with probability bands instead of a single straight line.

1,000
Simulations per run
20+ yrs
NAV history used
P10–P90
Probability bands
Sample output

₹10,000/month for 15 years

The median path might land near ₹52L, but the realistic range runs from roughly ₹29L in an unlucky sequence to far higher in a good one. The goal-probability tells you how many of the 1,000 paths clear your target — a far more honest answer than a single projected return.

Illustrative result with sample data — run it on a real fund after signing up.

What it does

Stop projecting one number

Probability bands

See the P10, median and P90 corpus at your horizon — the realistic range, not one optimistic number.

Driven by real volatility

Paths are simulated from the fund's actual monthly return distribution, so the spread reflects real risk.

Goal probability

Set a target and see what share of the 1,000 paths actually reach it by your horizon.

How it works

1,000 SIP paths in seconds

1

Set your SIP

Enter the monthly amount, an optional lump sum, the horizon, and (optionally) a goal amount.

2

Choose the fund

We derive the return and volatility profile from the fund's NAV history — no need to guess an expected return.

3

See the range of outcomes

1,000 paths produce a fan of corpus values; the bands show how wide the realistic range is.

FAQ

Common questions

What is a Monte Carlo simulation for an SIP?+

It runs thousands of random scenarios using a fund's historical return distribution. Instead of one expected return (say 12%), it shows a range — the 10th percentile (bad), median (typical) and 90th percentile (good) — so you can plan with uncertainty in mind.

Why is a single projected SIP return misleading?+

One expected return ignores the randomness of markets. A fund averaging 12% can deliver anywhere from 4% to 20% depending on the sequence of returns — and for SIPs the timing of each installment matters. Monte Carlo captures that full range.

How many simulations does it run?+

1,000 per analysis. Each randomly samples from the fund's historical monthly return distribution to simulate one possible path over your horizon; the distribution of all 1,000 final values gives the probability bands.

What inputs does the simulator need?+

The fund, your monthly SIP amount, and your horizon in years (plus an optional lump sum and goal). We estimate return and volatility from the fund's actual NAV data — you don't enter an expected return manually.

Run it on your fund

Create a free account and run monte carlo sip simulator on any fund in seconds.

Try it free